EXPERT VIEW: The world’s changing faster than work

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A number of Megatrends over the last century have changed the world of work beyond recognition, according to a report. But are businesses are aware of, or prepared for, the future trends that will shape the way we work and the performance of our organisations and economies in the next decade?

Megatrends: The trends shaping work and working lives is published by the CIPD, the professional body for HR and people development, as it launches a debate on the “megatrends” that are likely to shape the world of work, the workforce and the culture and organisation of workplaces in the near future.

The report highlights key changes that have shaped work in recent times, including:

De-industrialisation: In just half a century from 1961, the proportion of the workforce employed in manufacturing fell from 36% to 8%, while the proportion employed in services rose from 49% to 81%;
Demographic change: In just 21 years from 1992, the proportion of the employed workforce aged 50 and over has risen from 21% to 29%, while the proportion aged under 25 has fallen from 18% to 12%;
Educational attainment: In just 18 years from 1993, the proportion of 16-64 year olds with a degree compared to those with no qualifications almost completely reversed, from 11% with a degree compared to 26% with no qualifications in 1993 to 24% and 11% respectively in 2011;
Decline of collectivism: In just 33 years, union membership halved from 13 million in 1979 to less than 6.5 million in 2012;
Dramatic shifts in organisation size: In just 12 years, from 1998 to 2010, the proportion of private sector employment accounted for by firms with more than 250 employees fell from 49% to 40%, while the proportion employed in the smallest firms (with one to four employees) doubled from 11% to 22%.

The report identifies four new “megatrends” that could have similarly dramatic impacts on the world of work within the next decade.

A series of follow-up reports in the coming weeks will ask:

Have we seen the end of the pay rise? (Responding to four years of falling average real earnings, the most sustained period for at least half a century);
Has job turnover slowed down? (Responding to a fall in voluntary exits from firms – a trend that pre-dates the recent recession and is in contrast to many years of discussion on the end of the “job for life”);
Are we working harder than ever? (Responding to a trend for employees reporting that they’re working more intensively than ever before – driven as much by developments in technology as by recession-driven cost savings on employee numbers);
Are organisations losing the trust of their workers? (Responding to evidence showing plummeting trust in organisations and their leaders that has been exacerbated by recent scandals in sectors as diverse as financial services and the NHS).